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My Election Prediction, 2006

I don't know how much time I will have over the weekend, so I decided to put my election prediction together this afternoon. Working from a variety of sources, I came up with this:

  • Conservatives, 119 seats
  • Liberals, 95 seats
  • NDP, 34 seats
  • BQ, 60 seats

James Bow's election pool is online here and here. His pool also has a bonus for the person who comes closest to predicting the turnout, without going over. I'm going to aim high and call it as 65%.

POGGe is keeping on top of the latest poll results and seat projections, as is Bourque. The Election Prediction Project is also very useful, and Democratic Space has its own thing going.

My prediction last time was mediocre. I called it as Liberals 116, Conservatives 113, NDP 28, and Bloc 51. The actual result was 135, 99, 19, 54 and one independent. What I didn't anticpate was the last-moment collapse of NDP leaners. This year's prediction is just as vulnerable to that effect, but I'm hoping it won't happen.

Anyway, I would be reasonably happy with this outcome. We get a change of government, but the Conservatives aren't given an overwhelming mandate.

My regional breakdowns are:

  • BC - Lib 5, Cons 18, NDP 13
  • Alberta - Cons 28
  • Sask/Man/Territories - Lib 6, Cons 19, NDP 6
  • Ontario - Lib 55, Cons 40, NDP 11
  • Quebec - Lib 12, Cons 3, BQ 60
  • Atlantic - Lib 17, Cons 11, NDP, 4

The most important thing, of course, is just to get out and vote. Nobody's predictions mean anything, except as entertainment until the real votes are counted. So, get out there Monday and vote for what you believe in.

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