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Election Pool Aggregation

James Bow is running his election pool again this year. You can vote at his site or on the E-Group at Blogs Canada.

Like last year, there is an early phase and a late phase and you ought to vote in both portions to have a chance a full points. There is a prize this year, a fine art photography print from Sean McCormick of Digiteyesed Photography.

I haven't worked out my own picks yet, but I have done some analysis of the entries already cast.

Recently I have been reading the book, The Wisdom of Crowds. The book suggests that if you get many observers to make independent guesses on a topic, and if you have a way of aggregating those guesses, then there is a good chance the errors may cancel out leaving you with a very good overall guess.

So, I took all the (50+) entries that have come in so far, on both sites as of 11:30 or so this morning, and averaged them. Here's what that gives us:

  • Liberals - 110 seats (down 25)
  • Conservatives - 108 (+9)
  • BQ - 59 (+5)
  • NDP - 31 (+12)
  • Independents/Green - 0 (-1)
  • Turnout: 58%

Turns out to be very similar to the entry by Matt Arnold.

Anyway, that would be a very interesting Parliament.

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