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Environics Poll of Toronto Voters

Environics has conducted a poll of voting intentions across the GTA. (H/T Kinsella.)

It shows the Liberals in a dead heat with the Conservatives in the 905 region. It also shows the NDP coming on strong in the City of Toronto.

Here are the 416 numbers reported by Environics (2004 election in brackets):

  • Liberals, 43% (55%)
  • NDP, 28% (20%)
  • Conservatives, 25% (20%)
  • Other, 5% (6%)

The margin of error is 4.5%, assuming the poll was managed properly.

So... what does that mean for seats in Toronto? I took some time to analyze last year's results as listed on the Election Prediction Project. I adjusted the vote count in each riding to account for the change in support for each party. For example, I gave the Conservatives 1.25x as many votes as they had last time, based on 25%/20%.

Anyway, the new numbers show the Liberals holding 16 of their current 21 Toronto seats. The Conservatives would pick up one -- Etobicoke Lakeshore -- and the NDP would add four to the one they already have. I.e., they'd add Beaches-East York, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, and Trinity Spadina.

This poll and my analysis aren't worth very much. But they nevertheless suggest that the Liberals are in a bit of trouble.

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