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Harper's Gomery Bounce

For two days the major newspapers have been reporting the results of post-Gomery polls.

Today's Globe and Mail reports a Strategic Counsel poll:

  • Conservatives 31%
  • Liberals 28%
  • NDP 20%
  • Green 7%

And yesterday's National Post had this Ipsos-Reid result:

  • Liberals 31%
  • Conservatives 30%
  • NDP 19%
  • BQ 13%

My first reaction to this is that it looks like a lot of centrist voters seem to be parking their intentions with the Green Party. Much of this is likely to return to the Liberals at the voting booth (although that's not the only possible outcome).

I think these two polls are about as good as it is going to get for Harper as a result of Gomery. If he doesn't make the right moves now, the situation is likely to slip back into a Liberal lead (just as after the testimony this spring). Any further growth for the Cons will have to come as a result of policy proposals that win appeal. Harper simply can't win on the back of scandal alone.

However, these poll results also suggest that the Liberals are going to want to buy some more time, so settling a deal with the NDP will be a top priority. Meanwhile Harper will be that much more eager to have an election, and his attacks on Layton will likely rise. Still, you can't blame Layton for trying to do his job: getting NDP-influenced legislation and policy in place.

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