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Next Leaders

If you subscribed to the SES Research email list during the last election, you'd still be getting the results of an occasional poll. This morning had one about potential replacements for Paul Martin and Stephen Harper (link PDF):

  • Frank McKenna 23% (Liberal voters 28%)
  • Bob Rae 11% (Liberal voters 11%)
  • John Manley 11% (Liberal voters 13%)
  • Martin Cauchon 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
  • Michael Ignatieff 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
  • Other* 4% (Liberal voters 4%)
  • Undecided 43% (Liberal voters 37%)

* Note: fewer than five responses

  • Peter MacKay 17% (Conservative voters 30%)
  • Mike Harris 15% (Conservative voters 21%)
  • Bernard Lord 13% (Conservative voters 12%)
  • Jean Charest 9% (Conservative voters 6%)
  • Jim Prentice 3% (Conservative voters 5%)
  • Other* 2% (Conservative voters 2%)
  • Undecided 41% (Conservative voters 25%)

* Note: fewer than five responses

Greg Staples already posted about this with the not-so-serious title "McKenna vs. MacKay".

We all know that at this point such a poll doesn't mean much. Name recognition is a big part of it. As well, since both fields are so weak, I can't help but expect that some better candidates are going to come out of hiding eventually.

Of course, some say that the reason George W. Bush was able to build such a strong base on his way to winning the Republican nomination for 2000 was because voter confusion with his dad gave him the lead in very early poll results. He was able to turn those poll leads into funding, and carry the momentum all the way through.

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