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Who's Going to Win?

Commenters at Coyne are in a real panic over the Conservatives' gaffe press release with the headline accusation "Paul Martin Supports Child Pornography". At midnight tonight, the Conservative website still asks the same question about the NDP. It appears on the same page with a Quote of the Day, "'[They've] gone to a new low.' - Stephen Harper, responding to latest round of Liberal attack ads."

Now, I haven't seen all the Liberal attacks, but I suppose I can sympathize with the argument that the Liberals have also sunk to demagoguery. Nevertheless this -- coming after polls that show the Cons as low as 29% -- does not bode well for their success.

On the other hand, it also reminds me that there is lots and lots of time left for unpredicted things to come along and influence the result.

For example, I wonder if, when Paul Martin called the election, he knew that voting day would be immediately following this large, controversial, and media-friendly event? I will be surprised if Jack Layton is not in the Pride Day Parade, and obviously I will be suprised if Paul Martin or Stephen Harper is. The loser in all this has to be Martin, since the event seems capable of energizing the NDP and Conservative bases, but unlikely to resonate with the Liberals' middle-of-the-road non-position.



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